How to forecast sales accurately and manage pipeline

Create stages that reflect your actual buying process: Discovery, Qualified, Demo, Proposal, Negotiation, Closed. Each stage must have concrete criteria (not just time-based). A deal advances only when specific milestones are met: budget confirmed, decision process mapped, proposal delivered. Strict stage discipline improves forecast accuracy.

Analyze past deals to determine: What % of qualified opps become closed-won? How long do deals spend in each stage? What's the average deal size? Use this data to build weighted forecasts. If 50% of proposals close and you have $200K in proposals, forecast $100K. Historical patterns predict future results.

Make CRM accuracy non-negotiable. Every deal must have: accurate stage, close date, amount, next steps, and last activity. Stale deals (no activity in 30 days) get flagged. Required fields can't be skipped. Garbage in = garbage forecast. Inspect CRM data quality in every pipeline review.

Meet with each rep to inspect their pipeline. Ask: What changed this week? What's the next step? What could derail this? When was the last customer interaction? Challenge assumptions and verify deals are progressing. Push back on wishful thinking. Pipeline reviews surface risks before they become surprises.

Don't just submit one number. Provide three: Commit (high confidence), Best Case (if things go well), Worst Case (if deals slip). Commit should be deals you'd bet your bonus on. This gives leadership visibility into risk and upside. Track forecast accuracy over time and improve.

Track metrics that predict outcomes: new qualified opps created, demo-to-proposal conversion, average deal cycle length, win rate trends. If new opps drop, your future pipeline is at risk. Leading indicators give you time to course-correct before revenue suffers.

If you close 25% of qualified opps, you need 4x pipeline coverage to hit quota. If your win rate drops or cycles lengthen, you need more coverage. Track pipeline coverage by rep and by quarter. Insufficient coverage is an early warning that quota is at risk.